Buckeye Nation, prepare yourselves! ESPN is predicting a shocking College Football Playoff exit for Ohio State in 2026. Could it really happen? Let's dive into the details and see what the future might hold. But first, let's check in on the hardwood...
(Flashback to the Hardwood)
Before we get to the gridiron predictions, a quick shoutout to the Ohio State basketball team as they headed to Ann Arbor! The Buckeyes were set for a big game against Michigan, and the team's social media was buzzing with anticipation. Two tweets from the official Ohio State Hoops account showed Bruce getting ready for the game and the team traveling north. Remember those days when simply traveling to a rival's arena was enough to send shivers down your spine? More on that game later.
Hope you had a great Friday!
ESPN's Bold Prediction: A CFP Nightmare for the Buckeyes?
This week, ESPN's Bill Connelly dropped a bombshell: his 2026 college football season predictions, including conference champions and a full 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. And Buckeye fans? You might not like what he has to say.
Connelly's Big Ten prediction came with a major caveat: "It will be won by the best team not named Ohio State." He's picking Indiana to win the conference again, after their surprising run in 2025. Are the Hoosiers becoming the new kings of the Big Ten?
Let's break down Connelly's logic. He points out that Ohio State, despite winning a national title in 2024 and dominating much of 2025, hasn't actually won a Big Ten title since 2020. Michigan snatched three straight (2021-2023), and then Indiana shocked the world in 2025. He argues that momentum is a powerful force.
Connelly's top Big Ten contenders, according to ESPN's FPI, are No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon (soon to be Big Ten), followed by No. 13 USC, No. 16 Iowa, No. 18 Michigan, and No. 19 Washington. He admits Oregon should be strong, is intrigued by USC, and notes Iowa was close to a great season. But he's sticking with Indiana. He specifically mentions Indiana's coach, Curt Cignetti, and the key transfer players he's brought in, like quarterback Josh Hoover (TCU), running back Turbo Richard (Boston College), and receiver Nick Marsh (Michigan State).
Connelly's other conference picks? Georgia (SEC), Texas Tech (Big 12), and Miami (ACC). For the Group of 6, he's going with Hawai'i, calling them "awfully fun to watch" in 2025 and highlighting their returning talent. He suggests that if the Rainbow Warriors can beat Stanford and Arizona State in 2026, they could be headed for their biggest postseason game since the 2008 Sugar Bowl.
The At-Large Bids and That Ohio State Prediction
Connelly's at-large CFP picks include some expected names: Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, and Oklahoma State. He even defends his Oklahoma State pick, citing new head coach Eric Morris bringing the entire North Texas offense to Stillwater. If they can play defense, he argues, the Cowboys could be a threat.
And now, for the part that will make Buckeye fans' blood boil: Connelly has Ohio State facing Texas in a No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup in the CFP first round... and then picks Texas to win. Wait, what?! He acknowledges Ohio State's offensive struggles in 2025 and the need for a strong offensive coordinator hire. However, he also highlights the Buckeyes' incredible talent, including receiver Jeremiah Smith, quarterback Julian Sayin, and running back Bo Jackson. He even says there might not be a better starting point for any roster in the sport.
So, why the loss to Texas? It's a head-scratcher, and many fans will likely disagree with this projection. Is Connelly underestimating the Buckeyes' ability to bounce back and dominate, especially at home?
(For those curious, Connelly's full bracket has Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and Texas reaching the quarterfinals; Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Texas Tech in the semifinals; Notre Dame and Georgia in the championship game; and Notre Dame winning it all.)
The Gauntlet: Ohio State's Grueling 2026 Schedule
Ohio State's potential 2026 schedule is brutal. Road trips to Texas, Indiana, USC, and Iowa, plus home games against Oregon and Michigan? That's a gauntlet! And let's not forget a trip to Nebraska and a matchup against Bert (Bielema) in the Horseshoe. While this tough schedule might hinder their chances of winning the Big Ten, it should thoroughly prepare them for a CFP run. A team battle-tested like that is hard to beat in a playoff scenario. The key, of course, is winning enough games to even get there. Do you think this schedule is a blessing or a curse?
Jeremiah Smith: The Nation's Top Player?
One reason for optimism? Jeremiah Smith. He's ranked No. 1 in On3's top 100 players for the 2026 season. Smith leads a list of four Buckeyes in the top 50, including Julian Sayin (No. 12), Bo Jackson (No. 41), and Austin Siereveld (No. 42). Some might argue the list should include even more Buckeyes, like Brandon Inniss, Kenyatta Jackson Jr., and Jermaine Mathews Jr. But time will tell if they prove their worth.
From Generational to...What? The Silver Bullets Under the Microscope
Ohio State's defense was hailed as generational during the regular season. But after late-season losses, how should we really evaluate them? They finished 2025 ranked No. 1 nationally in total defense and scoring defense, allowing just 219.1 yards and 9.3 points per game. That's the fewest by any FBS defense in 14 years!
But here's where it gets controversial... According to an advanced metric called "stop rate" (the percentage of defensive drives ending in a punt, turnover, or turnover on downs), the Buckeyes weren't the most dominant. Texas Tech led the country at 83.5%, while Ohio State checked in at 78%. However, the Buckeyes did allow just 1.04 points per drive, second nationally behind Texas Tech's 0.92.
So, was Ohio State's defense truly generational? Maybe not by every metric. But it was still undeniably elite!
"Out For Blood" on the Hardwood
Back to basketball! Before the football predictions stole the show, the Buckeye basketball team had a rivalry game on their minds. Colin White's words perfectly captured the sentiment: "We hate Michigan, so we're coming out for blood." He added, "We're going up there to win, and we're going to have fun doing it."
Michigan was 17-1 and ranked No. 3 in the AP Poll. But White and his teammates weren't intimidated, especially with four-time captain Bruce Thornton leading the charge. Coach Jake Diebler emphasized the importance of the rivalry, stating, "This is a game that we're all really excited for... It's a game that should be played twice a year." A win in Ann Arbor would have been huge for Ohio State's Big Ten Tournament seeding and NCAA Tournament hopes.
The Eleven Dubcast & Quick Links
And if you wanted even more Buckeye analysis, Dan Hope and I discussed Ohio State's 2026 rankings on The Eleven Dubcast, debating whether they should be ranked No. 1.
Finally, some quick links to keep you in the loop:
- Fernando Mendoza wrote a LinkedIn update about winning the national title.
- Rhode Island may ditch Mr. Potato Head license plates after Hasbro moves to Boston.
- Hundreds of pet rats need new homes after they were found in a condemned house in New York.
- See the full list of 2026 Oscar nominations.
- The best and worst airlines of 2025.
So, what do you think, Buckeye Nation? Is ESPN right about Ohio State's CFP struggles in 2026, or are they severely underestimating the team's potential? And how far do you think the basketball team can go this year? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments below!
